The Indus River System Authority on Tuesday forecast a 22 percent irrigation water shortage for Punjab and Sindh in the coming Rabi season, from October 1 to March 31. The shortfall will affect wheat, tobacco, barley, mustard, gram, lentils, potatoes, onions and tomatoes.
Provincial withdrawals for the winter crops are set at 29.183 million acre-feet, against expected rim-station inflows of 21.268 million acre-feet. The figures followed an advisory committee meeting that reviewed inflow scenarios with the WAA tool developed by CSIRO Australia, the University of British Columbia watershed model and stakeholders.
Punjab will receive 15.564 million acre-feet, Sindh 11.748, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa's CRBC system 0.701 and Balochistan 1.171. The shortage figures will be subject to periodic review by the authority.
Actual Kharif 2026 inflows were 95.44 million acre-feet, 8 percent below anticipation and 22 percent lower than the year before. Storage on September 30 was 9.343 million acre-feet, and downstream escapage at Kotri reached 10.40 million acre-feet.
Kharif use stayed below Water Accord shares by 11 percent in Punjab, 7 percent in Sindh, 28 percent in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and 58 percent in Balochistan. The authority urged early completion of Wapda's T4 LLO and T5 hydropower projects to ease the provincial shortages.
The committee approved a tentative 21-day closure of Chashma Barrage from December 14, 2027, synchronised with the provinces' annual canal closures.